Texas 2036 report: Nearly 250,000 students missing from schools during pandemic

Enrollment in Texas public schools has dropped substantially and one analysis shows nearly 250,000 students across all regions of the state are not in school, and that number could continue to grow.

An analysis by Texas 2036 found public school enrollment has declined dramatically, and a large number of students are not receiving in-person instruction.

"According to a new analysis of public data by Texas 2036, almost 250,000 students, representing 4% or more of all Texas students, are missing from Texas schools, and only two out of every five Texas students are receiving in-person instruction," Texas 2036 reported.

Texas Home School Coalition, on its website, shows the trend toward home schooling nationwide and statewide is gaining momentum.

"Early numbers indicate that the growth in home schooling nationwide and in Texas due to COVID-19 is substantial," the coalition reported. "A recent survey from Real Clear Opinions found that 40% of registered voters were more likely to enroll their children in a home school or a virtual school after the coronavirus."

The coalition also indicated a Gallup survey found the number of families that would home-school their child doubled from 5% in 2019 to 10% in 2020. 

"Applied to Texas, Gallup's data would translate to more than 670,000 home-school students in Texas and more than $7 billion in savings to the state per year from students who the state was not paying to education in public school," its website states.

That Gallup survey released in August showed home schooling gaining momentum as parents' satisfaction with their child's K-12 public education decreased.

For Texas, which has in the past experienced one of the largest growing student populations in the country, the decline is noteworthy.

"Based on data from 99% of Texas school districts, there are a projected 242,000 fewer students enrolled in Texas public schools – including both in-person and remote learners – than there were last year, Texas 2036 reported. "This would be a 4% decline in year-over-year student enrollment, unprecedented in a state that has long had one of the fastest-growing student populations in the nation." 

With a decline in enrollment, Texas schools are already experiencing a funding loss. 

For instance, Central Texas school districts reported having to cut their budgets to deal with the funding loss due to the enrollment decline. KXAN reported one district, Pflugerville, lost 1,300 students. Most were transferring to a charter school or being home-schooled. The Pflugerville Independent School District projected a $9.2 million budget shortfall as a result of enrollment decline.

KVUE reported that in Central Texas, where the population has grown, area schools have witnessed a decline in enrollment. “In Central Texas' five-county metro area, the largest school district, Austin ISD, has seen the greatest decline," the report said. "In fact, for years, Austin ISD has been losing students as families move out of the city. But this school year, [the Austin district] said it recorded its biggest drop in enrollment ever: The district is down 5,661 students."

The three largest districts in El Paso also sustained enrollment declines by a total of 7,000 students and El Paso Matters reported on the schools potentially losing millions of dollars in state funds.

In Houston, area school districts are reporting a drop of nearly 40,000 students enrolled. Duncan Klussmann, a University of Houston education professor and former Spring Branch Independent School District superintendent, told KHOU, “I think that’s what everyone is trying to figure out right now. Some students can be home-schooled, so that could be a factor. There could be some students in private settings. And there’s going to be a certain percent of students who just are not enrolling at all.”

Other Texas cities, including Dallas and San Antonio, saw student attendance decline early in the new school year, and some indicated it was due to parents choosing to home-school their children.

With more parents opting for more innovative and empowering options such as home schooling, it's unclear what will happen in Texas and other schools nationally after the COVID-19 pandemic subsidies. However, parents who were surveyed last year indicated they may home-school their child after the pandemic ends. A survey from Real Clear Opinions found 40% of registered voters said they were more likely to home-school or enroll their child in a virtual school after the coronavirus, the American Federation for Children reported.

The New York Times in December reported on the financial crisis in the nation's schools, including in Texas, as most states tie school funding to enrollment and schools have had increased coronavirus-related costs.

"The fiscal crisis is looming at a time when families fed up with pandemic-era education have increasingly turned to private and charter schools or chosen to educate their children at home," the The New York Times reported. "That is potentially a major drain on public school budgets because most states base school funding at least in part on enrollment numbers."