Research shows link between immigration raids and student absenteeism

Even before Donald Trump began his second term as president, experts anticipated a decline in school attendance among students from immigrant families. They argued that a "climate of fear" would deter students from attending classes.

Recent research highlights the swift and significant impact of this situation. According to a working paper by Thomas Dee, an economist and professor at Stanford University, immigration raids coincided with a 22 percent increase in daily student absences in California schools. The study focused on five school districts in the Central Valley during the first two months of Trump's current administration.

Young students were most affected, with sustained drops in attendance. Dee's research centered on the aftermath of "Operation Return to Sender," a high-profile immigration raid occurring just before Trump's second term began. The Biden administration had attributed these raids to an immigration officer who "went rogue."

High-profile raids tend to have more significant impacts on absences than quieter ones. The Central Valley region is crucial for America's economy due to its substantial food production, suggesting potential long-term enrollment issues.

This research aligns with previous findings indicating that immigration raids negatively affect students' attendance. Studies from the Center for Law and Social Policy showed similar patterns during Trump's first administration.

Approximately 9 million K-12 students live with at least one non-citizen adult, making them vulnerable to fears surrounding immigration enforcement. Experts warn that these absences disrupt classes and introduce stress even among non-immigrant families. Long-term effects could include decreased funding for already struggling schools.

Jacob Kirksey, an assistant professor at Texas Tech's College of Education, likens the impact of immigration raids on students to natural disasters due to similar absence rates and psychological strain.

Schools have traditionally served as safe havens for students, but recent changes threaten this status. The Trump administration rescinded the Protected Areas Policy, allowing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations near schools and other sensitive locations.

Dee's paper demonstrates how quickly absences linked to immigration enforcement occur. Kirksey found that after a mid-2010s incident involving numerous immigration arrests, migrant student attendance declined by 11 percentage points, while Latino student attendance dropped by 10 percentage points in a California district.

The "Load Trail" raid in Texas further illustrated these effects: absenteeism increased, academic performance fell, and more students left the area.

Commenting on Dee’s paper, Kirksey suggests it reveals why students miss school—parents are afraid to send their kids to school—and highlights long-term implications such as reduced college enrollment among Hispanic and English-learner students.